Nobel Odds

Latest stats from iPredict:

Oliver Hart 27.5%
Richard Thaler 24%
Jean Tirole 20.86%
Robert Shiller 20.86%
Martin Weitzman 17.75%
William Nordhaus 17%
Angus Deaton 11%
Eugene Fama 7.82%
Avinash Dixit 7.5%
Robert Barro 6.91%
Ernst Fehr 5.18%
Gene Grossman 5.05%
...

And The Simpsons also provide a bet (via O&M):

ummm...Williamson to win the Physics Prize? For what? His demonstration that integrated particles are created by strong force due to physical matter specificity? In fact, the prize in physics went to a former Ig Nobelist because he successfully discovered something by using a scotch tape.

How to get a REAL Nobel?

One way is...to get an Ig Nobel first --

From the Nobel Committee: "The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010 was awarded jointly to Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov 'for groundbreaking experiments regarding the two-dimensional material graphene'. "

From Improbable Research: "The Ig Nobel Prize in Physics 2000 is presented to Andre Geim and Michael Berry for using magnets to levitate a frog. "

Now we got a clue.