The Nobel goes to...

Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims for "their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy".

I have only very limited knowledge on them, but surely Sargent is the most renowned scholar in the "rational expectation school" after Robert Lucas, and Sims has developed and promoted some important and widely used empirical methods in modern macroeconometrics, such as VAR (vector autoregression).

For those on the promising list but didn't get a phone call from Adam Smith or someone with a typical Swedish accent, nevermind, your chance is getting bigger.

update: Robert Lucas discusses both of the laureates here. He says while Sargent has put a lot of emphasis on policy analysis and the economics to build models, Sims is focusing exclusively on using econometric methods to do "economic forecasting without much economics".