The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will announce its choice on Monday, October 15, for the Nobel Memorial Prize in economics. (see here.) As the day approaches, some of the world's best minds are engaged in a highly inexact science: predicting the winner.
Thomson Scientific, which produces an annual list of front-runners based on how many peers cite an economist's work, forecasts three possible combinations for this year's crown:
Harvard's Elhanan Helpman and Princeton's Gene Grossman, "for their contributions to international trade and economic growth"; Robert B. Wilson and Paul R. Milgrom of Stanford, "for their work, both theoretical and practical, on the mechanism of auctions"; and Jean Tirole from IDEI, University of Social Sciences, Toulouse, France, "for his research on industrial organization and regulation".
From the public voting poll, Jean Tirole is a little bit ahead of the other two. But I still prefer the combination of Oliver Hart, Bengt Holmstrom and Oliver Williamson, which is a prediction last year.