Sunday, October 12, 2008

More Nobel Odds...

From Ladbrokes:

Eugene Fama 3.00
Kenneth R. French 5.00
Robert Barro 7.00
Christopher Sims, Lars P. Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent 8.00
Martin S. Feldstein 9.00
Avinash Dixit, Jagdish N. Bhagwati 10.00
Paul Krugman 11.00
Elhanan Helpman, Gene M Grossman 15.00
Oliver Hart, Oliver Williamson 17.00
Chris Pissarides, Dale T. Mortensen, Paul Romer 21.00
Nordhaus, Weitzman 26.00
Bengt Holmstrom, Peter A Diamond 34.00
Dale Jorgensen, Jean Tirole, Nancy Stokey, Paul Milgrom, Robert B. Wilson, William Baumol 41.00

I am a little bit confused of Fama and French's odds. They did exactly the same work (loosely speaking, although Fama is more influential, agree?), then either they would win the title together or ONLY one of them would win. If it is the former case, then the odds should be the same; if not, one odd should be much larger than the other. Because Fama is more influential, French's odds might be much lower (around 40? Just guessing...) .

Interestingly, if Fama eventually wins "for his pioneering work in Efficient Market Hypothesis", then this would simply suggest that "markets" are predictable...mixed feeling?

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