Saturday, October 11, 2008

Nobel Odds...

From PinnacleSports:

101 Martin Feldstein +753
102 Thomas Sargent +1186
103 Robert Barro +1305
104 Paul Romer +1350
105 Jagdish Bhagwati +1365
106 Paul Krugman +1626
107 N. Gregory Mankiw +4367
108 Any other person -136

Actually I don't bet any money on this, so there is no incentive for me to make difficult comparisons (it's soooooo unpredictable!!!!). Although the above list suggests the winner this year might be in macro, or in international trade, I still hope it will go to organizational economics in the end, maybe the combination of Oliver Williamson, Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström, or Paul Milgrom and John Roberts, or Armen Alchian and Harold Demsetz. Just wait for another day!

Freakonomist Steven Levitt also has his own predictions in a recent post, however, I find the story he told is more appealing, "Some colleague of me said he identified a strong leading indicator of economists who think they are on the short list for winning the prize: getting a haircut the week before the Nobel is announced. He also claims to have many data points supporting his theory..." Interestingly, this colleague of his just had a snazzy new haircut!

Who is it? Not Eugene Fama (he need not to), then Lars Peter Hansen?

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